Monday, September 12, 2005

Joe Carter on turtles

Evangelical Outpost nails a modern Credo to the Cyber-church door. I love the opening.

In his book A Brief History of Time, astrophysicist Stephen Hawking relates a story about a well-known scientist who gave a public lecture on astronomy: He described how the earth orbits around the sun and how the sun, in turn, orbits around the centre of a vast collection of stars called our galaxy.

At the end of the lecture, a little old lady at the back of the room got up and said: "What you have told us is rubbish. The world is really a flat plate supported on the back of a giant tortoise."

The scientist gave a superior smile before replying, "What is the tortoise standing on?"

"You're very clever, young man, very clever," said the old lady. "But it's turtles all the way down."


Joe Carter's Fifty Points isn't turtles, but it clearly represents one of the best-integrated summaries of Christian faith and thought I have seen lately. I'm still wondering about #39 but overall I don't find anything to quibble about.

It's a lot more digestible than the Machen essay referenced by JollyBlogger.
And check out JollyBlogger's notes on "grace grinding," a new term for me..."I have also heard it said that Calvinists are the only people in the world who can make the grace of God sound like bad news." Heh.

Sunday, September 11, 2005

Remembering September 11, 2001

Four years ago today was the formative event for an era. Four years is still too close to the present to know how long that era will last and where it will take us, but there is no doubt that we are still there. Even before a war in Iraq was instigated, and before that, a war in Afghanistan, it was plain that there was going to be war. Like it or not, humanity has yet to arrive at a place where conflict can be addressed in what we vainly refer to as a "civilized" manner. Civilized debate is what we do when there is little to be lost, but when there is a lot at stake, war is what we do to protect that egg.

Hurricane Katrina and last December's tsunami remind us that no matter what we do, human beings will always be subject to even greater punishments than war itself. In the same way that wars kill non-combatants, those events took out populations doing nothing more than being in the wrong place at the wrong time. In a way, we all are innocent bystanders, including those "doing their duty" as public servants such as fire fighters, or policemen, or even - yes - soldiers. Even the suicide killer, blackmailed or coerced into his diabolical act, is as blinded by a crippled world view as any conscript. We will always be mystified by what tortured thinking a group of people would deliberately fly airplanes into buildings. The tragedy will always remain that their minds were too small to envision alternatives.

Abbas Raza at Three Quarks publishes an email to his family at the time of the disaster which eloquently articulates part of the alternative. I reprint it here for today's remembrance. Blogging will resume tomorrow.

Hello,

.

As time elapses, I am more clearly able to identify and articulate what it is that has been making me so sad about this attack. It is this: some cities do not belong to any particular country but are treasures for all people; cosmopolitan and international by nature, they are the repositories of our shared world culture and artistic production, testaments to what is common and binding among diverse peoples, and sources of creative energy. They come to stand for our notions of community and brotherhood. New York has been by far the most magnificent of these world treasures, and it still is today. Here, on every block you will meet people from forty different countries. Here you can speak Urdu with the cab drivers, and Korean at the grocery store. Here, bhangra rhythms and classical sitar mix with calypso and Finnish ambient chants. Here is where mosques and synagogues are separated by no green-lines. Here is where Rodney King's wish has mostly come true: we do get along. This city is the least provincial; no nationalism flourishes here. It is the most potent fountainhead of intellectual and artistic endeavor. What this mindless attack has done is desecrate and damage the ideals of international community that this city not only symbolizes, but instantiates as fact and lovely example. And it is this desecration which is so devastatingly heart-breaking.

.

I recall two things: one, the pleasure and awe with which my mother took in the incomparably stunning view from the 110th floor observation deck of the World Trade Center on a visit from Pakistan in 1974. And two, her reading in Urdu, the words of welcome inscribed in the lobby of that building in over one hundred languages, to all people of the world. Alas, no one shall ever do either again.

.

Abbas

.

[This post is dedicated to the memory of my dear friend Ehteshamullah Raja who didn't make it out of his business meeting at the World Trade Center that day.]

Saturday, September 10, 2005

Risking a lifetime of rejection

It's not socially agreeable to find objections to war.

The bloghost of Netcetera is reading a book that makes reference to dog-training in World War II. The dogs were first screened for "courage," whatever that is, and those who failed were gassed.

...the occasional “canine ‘conscientious objector’” had short shrift: “There was … a convenient method of dealing with the offenders, which, unfortunately, is not available for human beings — an excellent lethal chamber at Battersea.

The reader found this quote "hilarious...Love it!"

Unfortunately...not available for human beings, it says.
To those of us who served as conscientious objectors this line is not amusing. It illustrates, however, part of how public opinion is formed. And it's not pretty.

Wish I'd said that...

Put these under "Duh..."

People are surprised that “fewer bodies are being found”. Recall this was a flood which occurred after the storm had for the most part passed. It wasn’t a flash flood and people are (for the most part) mobile (unlike say trees). Surprise! Most people moved to avoid drowning. Perhaps because most people have legs?

FEMA director Mr Brown is a political appointee whose adminstrative capabilities were not up to the task. Just out of curiosity, who might think that FEMA is not a sinecure/refuge and/or reward for political favors done? It seems to me, if memory serves, the presidency of Andrew Jackson was the first in which egregious crowds of political appointees were put in place after the President moved into Washington. This practice has not lessened in the following 180 years but in fact has gotten systematically worse. So … it seems to me the people looking “dumb” when they complain about this are those who don’t live in the “reality-based” universe and don’t realize that things like “government competence” is rare as hen’s teeth. Bitching about it is like complaining that the ground gets wet when it rains.

Friday, September 09, 2005

Random Fate on poverty

[This one I want to keep. I'm stealing the whole post. Thanks in advance to Jack Grant.]

Some things are all too easy to say… that others should do, things that are impossible for those others to accomplish.

From the email inbox:

I left work early yesterday to deliver to one of the shelters here in San Antonio clothes, toys, and other items after raiding my own house this weekend. I spent some time talking to a few refugees and those caring for them. The ones with whom I spoke were from inner city New Orleans - 9th Ward area. None of them owned their own homes, but lived in government housing or rented shotgun shacks decades and decades old. They have no desire to return and look upon this event as an opportunity to begin again. They intend to remain in San Antonio, look for work, and send their children to school.

There was great loss for these people, but they are optimistic and hopeful for tomorrow.

One woman told me but for Katrina, she would have never been able to get her and her children out of there.


Re-read that last sentence carefully: One woman told me but for Katrina, she would have never been able to get her and her children out of there.

For those who say, “If you are too poor to evacuate a city known to be in danger, move somewhere else,” I respond, “If they had enough money to move, they would have enough money for a car to flee the danger!”

I am glad that so many have absolutely no conception of true poverty and how difficult it is to escape, because that means they have never had to experience it.

I am furious that so many have absolutely no conception of true povery and how difficult it is to escape, not when they feel free to appoint themselves judges of those in poverty.

Two lessons, taught by a teacher far better than I will ever be, appear to have been forgotten by many who claim to follow that very teacher:

The story of the Good Samaritan

The statement, “Do not judge, or you too will be judged.” (I linked to a long passage for a reason, read the entire passage)

Nothing I can say is more profound than either of these teachings.

Red Cross not in New Orleans...old news...

Very old news, indeed.

I heard anecdotally several years ago that the Red Cross had no plans to send anyone into New Orleans in the event of a flood or storm, either paid staff or volunteers, because it was too dangerous. The RedCross FAQ page was putting it into print - more or less - but the spin was that they were being told by the authorities to keep clear.

National Geographic's warning last year included this.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency lists a hurricane strike on New Orleans as one of the most dire threats to the nation, up there with a large earthquake in California or a terrorist attack on New York City. Even the Red Cross no longer opens hurricane shelters in the city, claiming the risk to its workers is too great.

Seems to me that if they had an official policy not to endanger their people because the place would not be safe, it would be okay to simply say so and state the reasons why. I understand how that would be some kind of PR problem for an agency almost entirely dependent on volunteers, but an outspoken voice of the Red Cross might have raised the credibility of unheeded warnings.

Also Also on Katrina

I can't remember how I came by Also Also. Whatever it was must have been good, because I grabbed it for the aggregator and have been looking at it for several months.

Also Also, a collaborative project between two who have not met, who do not share the same political persuasion, but who find themselves in the maddening position of agreeing with each other on a regular basis.

Torrid comes from the left and Zap from the right, but our whole purpose is to try to forget those broad political positionings and emphasize the shared experience--or at least to discuss our dissimilar ones in a civil and useful manner. [From the first post last December.]


This morning they point to a column in the Oregonian by Steve Duin, United we surf, divided we drown.
Love that title.

Also Also comments...

...I think it's wise to start thinking about the larger pictures. What did the disaster and its response say about us as a nation? What did it tell us about our prevailing views of government, and how did we react as people to the suffering and burgeoning outrage? How should we view other threats to our security and well being, in light of Katrina? What role did our media play, and was it an awakening of conscience or simply a nose for an obvious story? Some of the stories have been good, and obviously many others have not.

In the Oregonian this morning I realized that some folks are beginning to think along those lines, others have been thinking that way even before the hurricane--while still others have seemingly crawled even further into their confining boxes...

...it's not the horrible fact checking or the narrowly twisted arguments that bug me (for now), it's the immoral equivalency argument: because mistakes may likely have been made at ALL levels of government, the top layer and ultimately the person whereupon the buck stops are somehow exonerated from real criticism. When somebody starts a grill by dousing it in gasoline and lighting it, minimizing responsibility by blaming the person who left the propane on is extraordinarily weak. There's no shortage of blaming in Duin's column, it's true. But notice that he is not trying to distract from highlighting other parties who may share the blame; he's recognizing that in the end, this is less about a poor response to a major disaster, and more about the entire culture of government and how it prioritizes its responsibilities.

This is my kind of talking. I just hate it when someone goes crashing into a debate with some preconceived notion of where it should go. That is not a debate. That is not a discussion. That is nothing more than a yelling match.

I'm yelling myself, but more like a referee yelling at the contestants to quit fighting because the bell has rung. The round is over, folks. But the rest of the match is yet to come. Get a grip. Quit blaming and get busy trying to figure out what's gonna happen next. Mr. Duin frames the question well:

"And if we can't get this right, how are we going to handle a dirty bomb?"

Americans are still bitterly divided over whether what's at stake in Iraq is worth the toll in human lives. As the bodies are pulled from thediseased waters of New Orleans in the coming weeks, we'll find out whether this country believes those fatalities are the price you pay to maintain an anorexic bureaucracy that exists to serve the rich and privileged, rather than to protect and inspire the destitute.

Thursday, September 08, 2005

Peaktalk on Katrina

Peaktalk by Pieter Dorsman, is "a weblog about international politics and economics. Some of Peaktalk’s posts have appeared in the National Post, one of Canada’s largest newspapers."
Smart, international, well-educated. CV here.

The global view of the hurricane tragedy is sympathetic but cold. Writers from outside the country don't have the same axes to grind as politicians with American constituencies. There may be conflicting viewpoints, but not for the same reasons.

His posts for today are very much worth reading. There are two.

The first basically says that the president needs to get to work. Quit being a symbol and cheerleader, roll up his sleeves and get involved.

George Bush came to the presidency with neither the imagination that a visionary head of state should carry with him, nor did he seem to be the managerial wizard that some had projected him to be. And while trying hard to unravel it, ...there’s still no explanation for his poor communications skills...his management style, if therewas one, was deeply flawed. The terrible weakness of his opponent and the strength of the war on terror message allowed Bush to claim a second term, but already doubts were raised - righty or wrongly - about the many mistakes made in post-war Iraq. The inability of Bush to hold his staff directly accountable deprived him of the most basic of tools any CEO needs: firing the incompetent. His loyalty is commendable, but it isn’t a trait that you would normally find among effective CEOs and certainly not among Chairmen who are increasingly held accountable by skeptic shareholders.

The Katrina debacle brought all of this into sharp focus. The White House staff was holidaying and failed to resurrect the man that can unite the nation, the de-facto head of government was away in Wyoming and the president himself failed to grasp that it was upon him to be both the Chair and the CEO at this critical juncture. Bush doesn’t have enough weight in either department to compensate for a shortcoming in the other like a Reagan or even a Clinton. As discussed earlier the affair has put his very presidency on the line and to lead the nation both as Chairman and CEO he will need to roll up his sleeves and get at it. It requires a lot of work, a revamped team and time. He has three years to do it.
Ouch! And this from a guy who basically respects and likes him.

The second post tears the Louisiana leadership to ribbons. The legendary political corruption of Louisiana in general and New Orleans in particular, reaching mythic proportions in prose and film, is laid out for all to see. The connection between that corruption and the catastrophe we are now witness to is a clear as the link between unprotected sex and STD's.
As former congressman Billy Tauzin used to say, “half of Louisiana is under water, and the other half is under indictment.”
[...]
The actions and inactions of Gov. Blanco and Mayor Nagin are a national disgrace due to their failure to implement the previously established evacuation plans of the state and city.
[...]
...without a moral compass, ethical boundaries and a profound understanding that public servants should serve the public, our leaders simply occupy positions of power to serve themselves. It is evident in the establishment of 30+ years of deliberate inadequate curriculum and teaching in New Orleans public schools. It is evident in decades of enormous amounts of corruption throughout the city’s political construct. It is evident in the prejudiced and criminal judges that headed the region’s judicial system. It is evident in the area’s corrupt cops.

These are all snips from verious sources he quotes. Together they really pour on the criticism. I am impressed that no one has been exempted from liability.

*******
*******
So how did I come by this site?
Glad you asked.

I was trying to learn something about one Adrienne McPhail whose piece in Arab News I am about to cite. She is a journalist who has been all over the place, written English articles for the the Arab News, and is currently living in Japan. In other words, she is an international journalist.

After Theo van Gogh was murdered by a Muslim on the streets of Amsterdam last November, the Dutch reacted in part by producing a video about living in Holland with the intent of helping immigrants learn how to become better Dutch citizens. Well, showing images of topless sunbathers on beaches - or homosexual weddings - is not the most effective way to appeal to conservative Muslims who find such practices reprehensible.

Anyway, Mr. Dorsman linked to one of Ms. McPhail's articles in his post. This turned up in a Google search. For me it has been a double-good discovery. Both of these are clear thinkers and excellent writers.

Now to the next post...

Adrienne McPhail on Katrina

Another hat tip to John Burgess...

Adrienne McPhail lived and worked in New Orleans on her way to becoming an international journalist. She has as good a take on the place as anyone. This is worth reading. It includes one of those delicious quotes from a Louisiana politician, this time former governor Earl Long, brother to the legendary Huey Long.

Don’t write anything you can phone. Don’t phone anything you can talk. Don’t talk anything you can whisper. Don’t whisper anything you can smile. Don’t smile anything you can nod. Don’t nod anything you can wink.

Her take on what happens next in Louisiana is summed up at the end.

The only hope for both the state of Louisiana and what’s left of the city of New Orleans is that along with all the garbage and debris, they clean up their political system, as well.

It isn't over yet

As authorities scramble to minimize an exploding public relations failure, the grim work of corpse management is just beginning. With living people still being rescued and evacuated, there is still no effective plan underway to take care of the dead. (There is a plan, I'm sure, but if bodies are still lying in the streets, so far it is not effective.) Paying no attention to official efforts to keep an embarrassing reality as unpublicized as possible, this morning's NY Times has a picture of a body lying in the street with a couple of soldiers and a civilian looking on. The laconic caption says "The sight of corpses has become almost common on the mostly abandoned streets of New Orleans, as rescue and evacuation operations have taken priority over removing the dead."

That a corpse lies on Union Street may not shock; in the wake of last week's hurricane, there are surely hundreds, probably thousands. What is remarkable is that on a downtown street in a major American city, a corpse can decompose for days, like carrion, and that is acceptable. Welcome to New Orleans in the post-apocalypse, half baked and half deluged: pestilent, eerie, unnaturally quiet.
A few days ago the mayor went from pleading to pissed.

National response authorities would say, "It's a disaster. It's hard to get stuff in there. It's hard to fly the helicopters and trucks in there," Pelley tells Nagin. Nagin was unmoved.

"Man, I don't wanna hear any of that. This is a national disaster on U.S. soil. And if we can deploy troops around the world, if we can deploy national guards and in a confined area, this is a - this is a small city. It's about 500,000 people. We're not talking about taking over a country. We're talking about 500,000 people. And with all the resources that this state and this country has, it should've gotten done quicker."

We met Nagin at his headquarters - this shattered downtown hotel with no power -no water. He's a cable TV executive with no political experience - he won a surprise victory in 2003. This week, holed up in darkness, he lashed out on a radio talk show saying politicians bragged about their efforts while his city descended into chaos.

"They don't have a clue what's going on down here," Nagin said on a recent broadcast.
"They flew down here one time two days after the doggone event was over with TV cameras, AP reporters, all kind of goddamn -- excuse my French everybody in America, but I am pissed."

He's not alone. Max Sawicky has concluded that we are seeing the bleak and savage world of Mad Max (the names are a coincidence...I think) moving from the movie theatre to the theatre of war.
Looking forward, I see the blossoming of survivalism. We are so f*cked in the event of a new, serious terrorist attack as long as the Gov is run by people who don't like government. My next house will have a generator. (No space for one now.) Cost about $5K, but fold it into the mortgage, no problem. Solar panels would be nice. Maybe a windmill. A well, if possible. Guns. Teach Little Nell how to handle a Beretta, Barbie edition. The wife can have the Uzi; it's light. I'll man the big gun, like Schwarzenegger. Peace out, y'all!
I sometimes enjoy the comment threads as much as the posts. You can tell a lot about a blog's readership by looking at the comments. (I suppose that's why I don't get many comments. Readership is small and not very outspoken. I don't really mind that. Most of the smart people I have known tend to listen first, then say something. I like to think my readers are more smart than vocal.) Anyway, from the comments...
As you probably know, Mormons keep a year's supply of food in the house.

I know you're not serious, but the best generators are diesel and diesel is about as easy to store as milk. Leave diesel in a tank for a year and it's worthless. Ammunition is the same way. Our only hope in this modern age is good government, and the best thing is for us all to expend our energies in the that direction. No one can plan for his own safety alone -- we have to hang together.

The Bush lunatics have to go. That we are even discussing survival shows how far things have deteriorated in a few months.

What brand generator are you thinking of?

I think that's spot on Max. This is going to do wonders for the survivalist sentiment. Look for a Huge increase in interest in generators, lighting, MRE's etc. Guns & ammo will keep a very long time if stored properly. Ammo stored from WWII & Korea is still being safely used and sold. It's easy to find Vietnam era vitage supplies in that regard. As long as they are stored at room temp & kept high and dry, they should have a very long shelf life. Perhaps longer than almost anything else on the shelf. A supply of your maintence meds. (important for many) might be the limiting factor here, as will water.

I'm waiting for the new eminent domain laws to be able to steal the property of 10's thousands of of displaced families scattered across the US to create that new tourist 'disney land'/ casino playground. We'll see it for as long as the Bush crime family is involved. But under Bush we have seen time and time again, it's every man for himself. Unless you are a crony that is.

But it's pretty dramatic when you watch 20K people drown because the Gov. could'nt be bothered to lift a finger to rescue, feed or supply water to just simple poor folks. It's like the Irish Famine relief. The government wishes you to know that it will not supply any aid, or any timely useful aid, so you really should go elsewhere, or die. And we're not kidding. Then as now, they're not overly concerned about the excess deaths of the under class. It is ever thus. And yes, this is the message many folks take away from the experience.

You might want to check into stockpiling antiviral medication, while you're about it. We are overdue for an infleunza pandemic, and the current strain of avian flu, at this very moment winging its way out of East Asia with wild birds, is very scary. Google Dr. Michael Osterholm for details. (Osterholm used to be the state epidemeologist in Minnesota, back when we had a public health system.) The worst case scenario is appears to be a flu that kills 5% of the population worldwide. Think about the economic consequences of losing one person in twenty!

A generator is not generally a great investment. One big enough to run your house is usually also a fuel hog. It will also make you a target--you have fuel and power. If you do get one, buy one large enough to keep your fridge and freezer going (no larger!) and enough fuel to last as long as the food. This will only be a few days.

Karlsfini: diesel stores very well indeed; this is why the military likes it. Gasoline has a shelf life of weeks.

A small solar system will cost less than a grand and let you run radios and LED lamps. It would also supply enough juice to charge a cellphone, laptop, or satellite phone. A 25-lb propane tank will run a two-burner Coleman stove for a very long time, and won't cost a fortune. Consider a multifuel backpacking stove as well--some will burn almost any liquid hydrocarbon. Don't forget water purification.

Guns. Get a cheap pump shotgun if you really think you'll need one. A basic deer rifle in a military caliber if you really think you'll have to hunt for food. You want a military caliber because you'll be buying 10,000 rounds of ammunition for it, and you can't afford that unless you buy military surplus.

Best advice: carefully evaluate your potential disasters and plan accordingly. There's no point in building some kind of urban fortess if it's going to be underwater or burned to a crisp. People who live in earthquake zones should never be more than ten feet from a pair of shoes they can hike for fifty miles in....because they might have to.

One window PV systems can probably do one room for light and communication (radio and telephone), probably for less than $500 including mount. You probably have to assemble the components yourself - PV panel, charge controller, battery, mount, wiring, and inverter.

Personally, I've been distributing WWII posters because I think we need to get serious. "All Fuel Is Scarce - Prepare for Winter Now" and "We'll [have] plenty of food this winter, won't we Mother" are my current favorites.

After all, we know this heating season is going to be expensive and there ain't nobody gonna come for us.

There is a curious blend of seriousness and levity here. It reflects the gruesome, dark humor that comfortable, middle-class people can afford.

Yesterday I heard someone say she couldn't stand looking at the images on TV. They made her cry. Someone else who was at the DFCS office was so moved by the overwhelming burden that caseworkers were handling that she was planning to go back on her day off and volunteer to help. These are NOT middle-class people. They are the 20M-people that Max referred to in his post. They do not joke or make insensitive remarks about what is happening along the Gulf Coast. They treat what is happening (Got that? ...is still happening...) with the seriousness that it deserves.

As that last quote said, they sense "ain't nobody gonna come for us."

Wednesday, September 07, 2005

Where is the "we" in all this?

I just came across yet another reference cooing about Bill Whittle's latest. It somehow captures the kernel of something that has been bothering me since the hurricane struck. I have complained a time or two about polarization, the impulse to pick sides and point fingers in the aftermath of this disaster, but every day the voices get louder and the division gets deeper. I think that as a population we are at a crucial moment and there will be a lot of unintended consequences of any direction we take. No matter what happens those unpredicted outcomes will fan the fires of division even more, leading to more blaming.

I'm not the only one who has noticed this trend. Michael J. Totten tries to bring some level of calmness to the debate, citing Roger Simon's prescient and brilliant little pearl "The Politics of the Last Five Minutes." In nearly every case, the comments thread deteriorates into a contest of agenda-advancing as this or that transparent opinion is expressed, in nearly every case trying to move any discussion away from debate to indictment.

I came across a timeline of the San Francisco Earthquake of 1906 and was reminded that we may still not be seeing the worst of what could happen this year. Hurricane season is just half over and another storm as bad as this one could still develop between now and Thanksgiving. I remember how awful the tsunami was in December, how at the time it seemed to be the worst tragedy in all human history, but it wasn't. Within living memory there was an even greater catastrophe in Bangladesh only a few years before and very few people at the time of the South Asian disaster spoke of it.

And that's just the weather. Haven't we been warned lately (just a few times, huh?) about the threat of terrorism...dirty bombs and the like? Want to talk about bio-terrorism? How about contaminated standing water, such as the "witches brew" they are talking about when they speak of flood waters? That strikes me as a pretty real case of bio-terrorism. Does finger-pointing help solve the problem?

Pretend for a moment that everything was done exactly right in preparation for this storm. Pretend that all those now-famous school busses had been put into service, that all the patients in all the hospitals had been safely relocated to alternative venues for their already life-threatening surgeries, that every public official and uniformed public servant, from National Guard reservist to letter carriers had pitched in for an all-out effort that had found and delivered to safety even the street people who were able to hunker down and reappear somehow a few days ago on the downtown streets....
Pretend there were not tens of thousands of corpses yet to be exhumed, identified and buried (or reinterred as the case may be)...
Would the dimensions of the disaster be any more palatable? Would we not still have to face gas shortages, future economic uncertainties, and a human relocation effort that would be several thousands of people greater than the one we now face?

It's time for complaining and finger-pointing to stop. There is still a life-threatening situation facing us all. The time for tribal contests may come later. But just now, we are all members of the same tribe.

Tuesday, September 06, 2005

Barbara Bush: Things Working Out 'Very Well' for Poor Evacuees from New Orleans

No comment.

****
*******
****
Oh, yes. And here's a story with a little different twist.
In the chaos that was Causeway Boulevard, this group of refugees stood out: a 6-year-old boy walking down the road, holding a 5-month-old, surrounded by five toddlers who followed him around as if he were their leader.
.
They were holding hands. Three of the children were about 2 years old, and one was wearing only diapers. A 3-year-old girl, who wore colorful barrettes on the ends of her braids, had her 14-month-old brother in tow. The 6-year-old spoke for all of them, and he told rescuers his name was Deamonte Love.
.
Thousands of human stories have flown past relief workers in the last week, but few have touched them as much as the seven children who were found wandering together Thursday at an evacuation point in downtown New Orleans. In the Baton Rouge headquarters of the rescue operation, paramedics tried to coax their names out of them; nurses who examined them stayed up that night, brooding.
.
Transporting the children alone was "the hardest thing I've ever done in my life, knowing that their parents are either dead" or that they had been abandoned, said Pat Coveney, a Houston emergency medical technician who put them into the back of his ambulance and drove them out of New Orleans.
.
"It goes back to the same thing," he said. "How did a 6-year-old end up being in charge of six babies?"
.
So far, parents displaced by flooding have reported 220 children missing, but that number is expected to rise, said Mike Kenner of the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children, which will help reunite families. With crowds churning at evacuation points, many children were parted from their parents accidentally; one woman handed her baby up onto a bus, turned around to pick up her suitcase and turned back to find that the bus had left.
The story has a happy ending.
.
If you can call being homeless and torn from everything you have ever known "happy."
This is how language changes the way we see things. Happy, in this instance, mainly means not dead.
.
Aren't we glad it's all working out well?

Monday, September 05, 2005

Ego-stroking time: Mirror, mirror...who's the humblest of us all?

Mostly for vanity I need to make a note of this.
Last Thursday as the magnitude of the aftermath of the hurricane became more evident, I wrote in the "running diary"

The real tragedy is that what we see is not what could have been the worst. Had the eye of that storm landed a few degrees to the West, say about New Iberia instead of Slidell, the resulting tide would have dumped itself right into the New Orleans "bowl." We would not be looking at the roofs of houses and sending a cavalcade of busses to ship Superdome City to Houston's Astrodome for Thanksgiving. Instead we would be filling up body bags as rapidly as possible to avert a loss of life and property of biblical proportions...just like the predictions have advertised. No, this was still not the Big One.

It looked like a case of common sense to me, but I didn't find too much to make me feel right or wrong...too much tragedy to worry about that at the time. In fact, as soon as I wrote it I came acrocc the Winds of Change piece that disagreed.

Well it seems that blogger-weather-nerd Brendan Loy, watching from Indiana, was one of the few people who was serious, accurate and alarmed about the impending storm. His story, (H/T Donald Sensing) now in the NY Times and excerpted by Glenn Reynolds, is another Cassandra study.
As horrible as the catastrophe has been, please realize that it actually could have been far worse. What occurred was not the long-feared "worst-case scenario," which involved not a levee breach equalizing the water level in Lake Ponchartrain and "Lake New Orleans," but rather a storm surge over-topping the levees and causing the water level in "Lake New Orleans," hemmed in by the still-intact levees, to rise substantially higher than the water level in the lake. If the storm had wobbled a meteorologically insignificant 20 or 30 miles to the west, and/or had not weakened from a Category 5 to a Category 4 at the last minute, that scenario would have occurred, and instead of a slowly developing 10-20 foot flood, New Orleans would have suffered a rapidly developing 30-40 foot flood. (Jackson Square would have been underwater, whereas in the real-world scenario it remained high and dry.) The whole thing would have happened Monday morning, and at the same time as the city was rapidly and massively flooding, the devastating winds that demolished theMississippi coastline would have been tearing New Orleans apart instead. All of those attics where people took shelter would have been either submerged or shattered to bits. The French Quarter would have been swamped, instead of mostly surviving the flood. Second-floor generators in hospitals might well have drowned. Bottom line, there would be a lot fewer refugees and a lot more corpses.

I rest my case.
(Cassandra LINK here, also)

Bill Whittle: Tribes

Okay, okay.
Go read it. Everyone else is, so if you don't you won't be able to call yourself fully in the know. I have been keeping up for about three years. Three or four times a year he puts out another chapter and all the right people ooh and aah and link to it.

It's called Tribes. He contorts himself into knots driving home the point that the essay is not about race or class. He has to be one of the most persuasive writers working today, except maybe Hitchens or Billmon, so he leaves no cracks for easy criticism. But this piece hammers away too much on the already bruised "left", whoever that may be. Since I find myself drawn more in that direction, I suppose the spleen was too bitter for my liking. Strikes me as chauvinistic, in the academic sense of that word. Not enough attention to the virtues of mobility (from one tribe to another, for example). And absolutely nothing about reconciliation. But what might one expect from an atheist. Too much TV. Survivor and all that.

I very much liked some of his earlier stuff...essays called FREEDOM , COURAGE and CONFIDENCE. I posted good comments about Whittle's essays last October. I like reading them in the same way that I like watching a Bruce Willis or Clint Eastwood film. But this time I didn't get the tingle. Oh, well. Maybe I'm getting jaded from too much finger-pointing. I've about had it.

Sunday, September 04, 2005

NOLA -- Katrina Links

Welcome to the New Orleans LA post-Katrina Intel Dissemination Wiki!

Video Streams

WWL-TV Page stream (http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/yahooPlayer.pl) (Pretty much the only live TV stream online)

The Interdictor

Cassandra

It was a broiling August afternoon in New Orleans, Louisiana, the Big Easy, the City That Care Forgot. Those who ventured outside moved as if they were swimming in tupelo honey...Hurricanes in August are as much a part of life in this town as hangovers on Ash Wednesday...But the next day the storm gathered steam and drew a bead on the city. As the whirling maelstrom approached the coast, more than a million people evacuated to higher ground. Some 200,000 remained, however—the car-less, the homeless, the aged and infirm, and those die-hard New Orleanians who look for any excuse to throw a party.

The storm hit Breton Sound with the fury of a nuclear warhead, pushing a deadly storm surge into Lake Pontchartrain. The water crept to the top of the massive berm that holds back the lake and then spilled over. Nearly 80 percent of New Orleans lies below sea level—more than eight feet below in places—so the water poured in. A liquid brown wall washed over the brick ranch homes of Gentilly, over the clapboard houses of the Ninth Ward, over the white-columned porches of the Garden District, until it raced through the bars and strip joints on Bourbon Street like the pale rider of the Apocalypse. As it reached 25 feet (eight meters) over parts of the city, people climbed onto roofs to escape it.


Thousands drowned in the murky brew that was soon contaminated by sewage and industrial waste. Thousands more who survived the flood later perished from dehydration and disease as they waited to be rescued. It took two months to pump the city dry, and by then the Big Easy was buried under a blanket of putrid sediment, a million people were homeless, and 50,000 were dead. It was the worst natural disaster in the history of the United States.

[More...]


Q.) Where did this come from?

A.) National Geographic Magazine Incidentally, the next paragraph says, among other things, "The Federal Emergency Management Agency lists a hurricane strike on New Orleans as one of the most dire threats to the nation, up there with a large earthquake in California or a terrorist attack on New York City. Even the Red Cross no longer opens hurricane shelters in the city, claiming the risk to its workers is too great." See the next post.

Q.) When?

A.) October, last year

Q.) Who was Cassandra?

A.) Go look it up.

The Red Cross is not in New Orleans

As long as three years ago I heard that the Red Cross had no plans to set up operations in New Orleans for the simple reason that it is too dangerous. The city is below sea level and the levee system is not built to protect the area from the largest known hurricanes.

This is on the Red Cross FAQ page...

Hurricane Katrina: Why is the Red Cross not in New Orleans?

**Acess [sic] to New Orleans is controlled by the National Guard and local authorities and while we are in constant contact with them, we simply cannot enter New Orleans against their orders.

**The state Homeland Security Department had requested--and continues to request--that the American Red Cross not come back into New Orleans following the hurricane. Our presence would keep people from evacuating andencourage others to come into the city.

[...]

**The Red Cross does not conduct search and rescue operations. We are an organization of civilian volunteers and cannot get relief aid into any location until the local authorities say it is safe and provide us with security and access.


The Red Cross may be in need of some updating as well. WILLisms bloghost has some interesting notes after volunteering with the Houston Red Cross.

...the information revolution has not yet reached the Red Cross. No volunteer has a computer. Few would even know what do with a computer if they had one. I brought my laptop and grabbed the WiFi network coming from a nearby building. Why did I need a computer, you ask?

Well, because most of the people calling the Houston Red Cross are seeking their relatives or friends. They just want to know where they are. This is a diaspora the likes our country has not seen in generations. And nobody knows where anyone else is. The Red Cross has this website, and there is NOLA.com, and craigslist.com, and so on. But few have internet access. Just the process of processing everyone and providing a unified database for family and friends to know people are safe is going to take many days. The next step will be to process people, get them longer-term shelter, and so on. America is opening its heart. And there are websites galore devoted to that. There's KatrinaHome.com, KatrinaHousing.org, and Operation: Share Your Home.

The volunteering process, where I was, was interesting, because we were the information warriors. But the information with which people were fighting was lacking. Photocopied packets of shelters and phone numbers and such.

I can just imagine a 21st-century response center. Everything would be linked up. Everyone would have a computer. And information would flow back and forth, in and out, up and down... instantaneously. Updating lists and addresses and phone numbers and everything else, so everyone is on the same page.

Sunday morning NOLA report

The guys at Interdictor blog are getting some sleep, but bit by bit things seem to be getting back to normal, if seeing "regular" homeless people on the street can be called "normal."

...The only civilians out are the homeless, one of whom you've all seen on the cam day after day -- the guy who set up his little stolen clothes shop on the sidewalk under the Pan Am building. We've got four regulars out there now -- the guy I just mentioned, a drunk who carries a cane and beats on every object he passes, a woman who wears a leather skirt and thinks everyone is a cop and offers herself for arrest, and her man who basically yells at her all day. At least the police aren't bothering them. I hope they can get some professional help, but I'm sure that's unlikely.
Also a very serious email from New York...
...many individuals know the exact locations and WORKING telephone numbers of family members, most of whom are elderly, sickly, starving, and in serious need of medical attention. When able to get through on emergency telephone numbers, a feat not to be taken lightly, they are dismissed or told that dispatch would be sent immediately, yet no one has come, even though calls have been placed for days....I spoke to one such individual, Ms. Lee Livermore, who was still trapped in her home earlier this evening (around 6:00pm EST). Her nephew, living in Michigan, explained to me that she is diabetic, has difficulty moving, and he has been in contact with the coast guard, emergency services, and even the governor's office, yet nothing is being done. Stranded on a 3rd floor apartment, with little food, no sweets, and low blood sugar, her outlook is not promising. This is just one case out of hundreds, probably thousands.
Much, much more...

Chief Justice Rhenquist died

+ NOLA tragedy
____________________________
= Clarence Thomas as Chief Justice

Congress reconvenes after Labor Day.
Just guessing. We should know by Monday.

Saturday, September 03, 2005

What to make of it...

I can't remember a time of so much blaming. Attempting to make sense of the tragedy that has happened, nearly every voice is seeking to simplify a blindingly complicated scene, to finish every sentence, every paragraph, on a note of insight leading to understanding. Pundits, preachers, politicians and other word peddlers are busy trying to make themselves look good as they reel out ream after ream of empty words.

A lot has been said about those who are suffering because they failed to follow instructions to get themselves out of harm's way. It reminds me of the way we blame those suffering from substance abuse, obesity, gambling addiction, or any number of human problems, both medical and behavioral, because those who suffer most from those problems are not doing all they can to ameliorate their various conditions. Who has sympathy for the cancer victim still smoking, the morbidly obese patron going back to the buffet for yet another plate of food, for the panhandler wanting money because the bottle in his little brown bag is empty, for a laborer in line at the unemployment office instead of being out there in the street looking for work, for the young mother with two kids in tow and no dad in sight, pregnant again with another kid she can't afford?

Yes, it's easy to blame victims, to look past our own motes to those in other eyes. I have heard it for years, and I'm hearing it again.

The head of FEMA said the people in New Orleans shared some of the responsibility for their plight and the reaction was official indignation, but when I mentioned that remark to someone I know he replied "He's right. I know it's not good politics to say that, but he spoke the truth. I'm glad he said it."

A screaming headline over a picture of people at the Superdome had a quote about "They are treating us like animals..." and someone else said "Just look at that! Damn liberal paper trying to stir something up...I wish I could go down there and kick some butts."

Check any comment thread, look at most any weblog and find someone looking to assign responsibility for what has happened. Either the problem should have been averted or the response should have been more expeditious or both.

My take on the situation is more boring. What I am seeing is a clash of values, of lifestyle, of cultures. I'm not speaking of race or class in the popular sense. Or "lifestyles" in the magazine or homosexual or "extreme makeover" sense. I'm talking about what makes people get up in the morning and start their days. What makes people live and act as they do. Hard as it is for me to accept, a lot of people don't want to do the same as I, or work for the same goals.

My career has been in the public, serving cafeteria patrons, working with those who produce the food. I have met and loved many thousands of the public, their friends and families, watched their children grow, learned to admire their energy and accomplishments. I also understood that my job, along with those of fifty or a hundred others, depended on their discretionary spending.

Behind the scenes I worked with people who would never go "out to eat" in the cafeteria sense, at least not two or three times a week - or even daily - as our best customers did. They enjoyed pizza or other fast food. They might treat themselves to a full-service restaurant from time to time, but they had no use for places that charged more for service and image than for food.

But enough about me. And enough about you, for that matter. Let's back up and look at the picture. What we see is a contrast in values.

We see a population of people who would never eat in a cafeteria earning a living by working in one. It's not too different from any other workplace where people make new cars but drive to work in old ones, who clean houses for a living but live in a house with a rodent problem, who work in a grocery store but eat an unbalanced diet of starches, fats and carbs.

On the other hand, I once lived in a suburban neighborhood where substance abuse victims all happened to be "functional." They had good jobs, six-figures in some cases, but came home every day and organized their afternoons and evenings around their alcohol intake. They could afford it. They could also afford the resulting health problems and other consequences.

I watched a line of customers in a newly opened cafeteria in a very upscale community with family after family consisting of a grey-templed dad and his much-younger, fashion-conscious, pretty young wife and mother to his second family, all going out to eat. There were so many kids we had to order in another fleet of high chairs. All because they could afford it.

My point is this: there are a great many lifestyles and choices in America. We can argue that they are all determined by income, but that is demonstrably untrue. It's not about income, it's about choices. And before you jump to the conclusion that I'm about to condemn those who "choose" to be poor, back off. I have a great respect and admiration for those who, whether by choice or circumstance, are living poor. They include old people who can no longer work, simple people who would rather live humbly and have more time in their life for travel and study, those who for religious reasons eschew wealth - I'm thinking of the Amish and Catholic Worker types. Remember the old saying about all work and no play. That, too, is part of the American Dream.

And there is a vast population of people in our society whom we can call the working poor. They work, but remain poor. Why? Is it because they like being poor? Why, no. If you could choose to be good-looking or in good health or respected would you choose to be ugly or sick or hated? Of course not. But often we are not who or where we are because of choice. We are there because that is where we are and being someplace else is not part of our imagination.

How can the person born blind understand about colors? How can the person who is deaf know about musical harmony? And how can the infant born into what we condescendingly refer to as an "underclass" know that there could have been some alternative? At what point does the toddler begin to make "choices" about whether or not he wants to continue a lifestyle? What are the dynamics that produce an occasional boot-straps success despite a "poverty" mentality?

I do not have an answer to these questions, and I do not propose to find any.

What I do propose, however, is that whatever the reasons, however it happened, there are a lot of people in America who do not have what I describe as a "suburban mentality." For them life is just as challenging, just as exciting, just as painful, just as rewarding as it is for anyone else. They know that when they get up in the morning they have to eat, live, love, worry, rejoice and rest just like everyone else. The family structure may not be ideal, they have more problems as the result of that lifestyle than they would elsewhere, but elsewhere is not where they are.

They have not come to America, like immigrants, with a vision of success, working to buy into the American Dream. Nor have they jumped out of bed one morning and said "This is the pits! I can't stand living like this! No matter what it takes, I'm gonna work my ass off til I get the hell outta here!"

No, not everyone is mad as hell and not gonna take it any more. It not only takes hard work, creativity and sometimes a good break or two, it also takes role models, encouragement and a stubborn resolve on the part of the individual that is rare in the human population. Remember, we aren't talking about third-generation college grads whose parents, grandparents and extended family would look good in a magazine article.

We are talking about people who have grown up very differently. "Work" is not something you do because you like it. It is something you do because you need the money. If you learn to like it later, that's great - maybe even necessary. But as soon as you learn to like what you do, where is the motivation to do something else? If you are in tolerably good health, get a cold beer from time to time, enjoy your tobacco, play cards, and have good sex, why in the world would you want to change? I know a lot of so-called "successful" people who would toss it all in to have that much.

Transportation, for the simple lifestyle, is walking, public transportation, catching a ride with someone else or driving some old piece of a car that will have to be replaced pretty soon. (If someone "orders" an evacuation that order is as alien as it comes. It presumes a car, and the means to buy gas, and a destination, and the means to feed and shelter yourself in a place you have never even seen. It presumes you know the way, and I'm not speaking of maps.)

Health care is getting over being sick. If you can't get over it you take over the counter meds. If it gets worse you go to the emergency room and hope they can help. Dental work is about the same. Get over it. Take something for the pain. And if it gets too bad, find a dentist to pull the tooth. If they get bad enough, have them all pulled and find a cheap lab that will make you some more for two hundred dollars. Then you can smile like you used to., with teeth again.

I'm here to tell you that the people I have just described are not optional to our economy. Their lifestyle "choices" if you insist on calling it that, is as basic to the American economic infrastructure as coins and credit. Pay attention to this: Not everyone will make a good income. Somebody is going to work for low wages, the so-called "minimum wage." Somebody is going to work for even less. And those who do will not be drawn from the much exalted middle class, They will be drawn from the young, the inexperienced, the very old and those between jobs.

But I can tell you from experience that the best of them - the core of their respective professions - will be there, year after year, generation after generation, doing a good good job, putting in their days and weeks, teaching the more transitory around them how to do their work because those in a supervisory capacity are on their way elsewhere and have not been trained to be teachers. I have watched good poor people doing honorable work and doing it well for my entire career. When I think of what happened to those people because of the hurricane it makes me want to cry.

And this week I have watched those same people on television being blamed for circumstances over which neither they nor anyone else had any real control.

I have watched helplessly as many who call themselves leaders grope blindly for remedies.

I have read endless words of blame and recrimination. And I am calling for an end to meanness and counterproductive arguments. Now is not the time to be lecturing poor people about their bad "choices." No one need tell them about the consequences of lifestyle. They understand better than most the problems of hypertension, obesity, substance abuse, unplanned babies, short age spans for black men, under-umployment and unemployment, dependence on welfare, and everything else that goes with the picture. No need to beat anybody up any more.

The time has come for everyone to do or say something positive. Like we were taught as children, if you have nothing good to say, then please don't say anything at all. If you are sitting there reading from a monitor and think you have had a reality check, you are right. But your "reality check" is nothing compared to what happened this week to a lot of folks. Let's work to make it better, not worse.

Friday, September 02, 2005

Rapprochement: Pakistan & Israel

John Burgess points to an editorial in Arab News titled Why Pakistan Engages the Jewish Congress.

There are three specific facts that explain Pakistan’s current engagement. One, while Quaid-e-Azam’s rejection of Israel’s creation was morally valid, the changing parameters of the Palestinian issue now require promoting the creation of a Palestinian state and its secure and peaceful existence alongside the Israeli state. All the Muslim states including Iran have moved from seeking the destruction of Israel to seeking its withdrawal to the pre-1967 borders.
[...]
Two, despite the overt policy of routinely condemning Israel, successive Pakistani governments have had covert contacts with Israel.
[...]
The third and perhaps the most compelling reason to engage with the Jewish community now is to arrest the diabolical trend of clash of civilizations that has gained momentum ever since 9/11 and the US occupation of Iraq. It would be an attempt to bridging civilizations.
Last lines of the piece...

How credible will be Musharraf’s efforts to play a role in leading the pathway to peace will depend on how he will deal with it. The parameters of the current engagement are clear. First, the engagement would help to facilitate a just settlement of the Palestinian issue. Second, the engagement with pro-Israeli Jewish organizations is neither an endorsement of their views on Israel nor an endorsement of current Israeli policies toward the Palestinians. Third, recognition of Israel will only follow a fair and final settlement of the Palestinian problem.


It seems the Gaza withdrawal is already yielding diplomatic dividends. The whole thing is worth a read. (The presumption is that the reader has enough intelligence and education to know what is being said, something not typical of a good many western papers.)

Another item under the "news" category supports the editorial.

Later...
Jonathan Edelstein blogged about the same report.

There's more than a little self-interest on both sides in improving bilateral relations. For Israel, normalization with the second-largest Muslim country in the world would be a major diplomatic coup, and might open the door to similar thaws with other Muslim nations in south and central Asia. Pakistan, for its part, would gain leverage to influence Israel's growing defensive alliance with India, which it doubtless considers worth the price of making Hamas unhappy. Given the strength of this mutual interest, I'd expect some initial steps - most likely including an end to Pakistan's travel ban on Israeli citizens - to happen fast.

(I'm also flattered to find he left a comment here.)

Saddle up, guys!

I remembered today the James Garner film "Tank" in which a Command Sergeant Major got angry about something and took matters into his own hands. I don't recall the details of the plot, but he happened to own a tank, his very own, well-maintained, privately-owned tank. He cranked up his tank and put it into action, chased and threatened by the local sheriff. Gret film.

I had a flash fantasy that a lower level military guy, watching all the inaction going on in the aftermath of the disaster, and getting fed up. He has a small fleet of amphibious military craft, made for the purpose, so he tells his men, "Guys, I'm tired of watching all this crap and not doing anything about it. I'm goin' down there and start getting supplies in and people out. Er got no permission and anyone who goes with me will get into a load of trouble, but anyone who wants to go, saddle up and let's get to it!."

With no one's peermission a little band of guys just take what they need and go to New Orleans to do wht they can.

End of fantasy.

Well look what I just found:

The first busload of New Orleans refugees to reach the Reliant Astrodome overnight was a group of people who commandeered a school bus in the city ravaged by Hurricane Katrina and drove to Houston looking for shelter.

Jabbar Gibson, 20, said police in New Orleans told him and others to take the school bus and try to get out of the flooded city.

Gibson drove the bus from the flooded Crescent City, picking up stranded people, some of them infants, along the way. Some of those on board had been in the Superdome, among those who were supposed to be evacuated to Houston on more than 400 buses Wednesday and today.

They couldn't wait.

The group of mostly teenagers and young adults pooled what little money they had to buy diapers for the babies and fuel for the bus.

After arriving at the Astrodome at about 10:30 p.m., however, they initially were refused entry by Reliant officials who said the aging landmark was reserved for the 23,000 people being evacuated from the Louisiana Superdome.

"Now, we don't have nowhere to go," Gibson said. "We heard the Astrodome was open for people from New Orleans. We ain't ate right, we ain't slept right. They don't want to give us no help. They don't want to let us in."

Milling about the Reliant entrance, Sheila Nathan, 38, told her teary-eyed toddler that she was too tired to hold him.

"I'm trying to make it a fairy tale so they won't panic," said Nathan, who had four grandchildren in tow. "I have to be strong for them."

After about 20 minutes of confusion and consternation, Red Cross officials announced that the group of about 50 to 70 evacuees would be allowed into the Astrodome.

Also Junkyard Blog, Michelle Malkin and by now probably a lot more.
Damn. Just, damn!
And that picture of two hundred school busses parked in the floodwaters (see the Junkyard Blog link) says it all. I don't know why they call it "common" sense. It's not all that common.

Rocketboom, Amanda Congdon, Katrina script

Amanda Congdon is an actress by trade.
In yesterday's Rocketboom she does a compellingly moving sequence of vignettes, using a script from real life. If you want some printed words to have life, take a look.

Flu blogging

Not to panic, mind you, but I keep an eye on the flu blogs.
These folks tend to be more scientific than political, so I trust their science more than their politics. They do pay attention, however, to how official policies and the response of public officials to threats impact the spread of disease.

Hurricane Katrina highlighted the poor response from US officials in the face of a serious emergency. Bloggers who follow the spread of bird flu were quick to point out that Katrina showed just how unprepared we are to deal with a flu pandemic. Lots of interesting observations, here are a few posts from the sites I read daily: Tyler's reaction at Marginal revolution, Effect Measure on the preparedness of the public health system, and Crawford Killian from H5N1 sharing his thoughts on the events in New Orleans.
These people don't advertise themselves to be partisan, but what's happening in the wake of the hurricane damage is putting off a lot of stink, both literally and figuratively. Yes, I know, Tyler Cowen and others may be partisan, but one can't expect the disease experts never to leave the lab. Their opinions on these matters carries more weight than the average guy in the street.

My guess is that they next several days will be politically important for the next presidential election.
As every politician knows, voters don't just ask "What have you done for me?"
They are more likely to ask "What have you done for me lately?"
Excuse me for bringing it up, but the president has ridden September-11 long enough.
That horse is getting tired. It's time to jump on a new one.
We will see how well the cowboy can ride this bronco.

Blogging Katrina from New Orleans

Via Fred Wilson's blog, VC, several links to the front lines in New Orleans, including this one. (See the final entry for Thursday, September 1. I couldn't find permalinks.)

The following is the result of an interview I just conducted via cell phone with a New Orleans citizen stranded at the Convention Center. I don't know what you're hearing in the mainstream media or in the press conferences from the city and state officials, but here is the truth:

"Bigfoot" is a bar manager and DJ on Bourbon Street, and is a local personality and icon in the city. He is a lifelong resident of the city, born and raised. He rode out the storm itself in the Iberville Projects because he knew he would be above any flood waters. Here is his story as told to me moments ago. I took notes while he talked and then I asked some questions:

Three days ago, police and national guard troops told citizens to head toward the Crescent City Connection Bridge to await transportation out of the area. The citizens trekked over to the Convention Center and waited for the buses which they were told would take them to Houston or Alabama or somewhere else, out of this area.

It's been 3 days, and the buses have yet to appear.

Although obviously he has no exact count, he estimates more than 10,000 people are packed into and around and outside the convention center still waiting for the buses. They had no food, no water, and no medicine for the last three days, until today, when the National Guard drove over the bridge above them, and tossed out supplies over the side crashing down to the ground below. Much of the supplies were destroyed from the drop. Many people tried to catch the supplies to protect them before they hit the ground. Some offered to walk all the way around up the bridge and bring the supplies down, but any attempt to approach the police or national guard resulted in weapons being aimed at them.

There are many infants and elderly people among them, as well as many people who were injured jumping out of windows to escape flood water and the like -- all of them in dire straights.

Any attempt to flag down police results in being told to get away at gunpoint. Hour after hour they watch buses pass by filled with people from other areas. Tensions are very high, and there has been at least one murder and several fights. 8 or 9 dead people have been stored in a freezer in the area, and 2 of these dead people are kids.

The people are so desperate that they're doing anything they can think of to impress the authorities enough to bring some buses. These things include standing in single file lines with the eldery in front, women and children next; sweeping up the area and cleaning the windows and anything else that would show the people are not barbarians.The buses never stop.

Lots more. More than I could handle.
There is no reason to imagine there is any reason to exaggerate. Lots of pictures. A webcam (but it's dark right now so I don't know what it shows), an avalanche of comments...

Thursday, September 01, 2005

Message from God?

[Welcome to those from other sites. This post has had a couple of links. You are invited, time permitting, to read some follow-up remarks that I wrote thinking about this post and the response it has generated. Hoots]

Whenever the notion strikes me I check out blogsnow, a tracking site that keeps up with who's linking where and which sites are getting the most traffic. A kind of vital signs (heartbeat, pulse, respiration) indicator of the internet.

I just looked and found this post four places from the top. (The top, of course, is the blogfather with 364 links, so this is really number three with just 63). The number of links may be greater down the list because bloglines tracks hits instead of links. So this site, Repent America, is getting a lot of hits.

"Southern Decadence" has a history of filling the French Quarters section of the city with drunken homosexuals engaging in sex acts in the public streets and bars. Last year, a local pastor sent video footage of sex acts being performed in front of police to the mayor, city council, and the media. City officials simply ignored the footage and continued to welcome and praise the weeklong celebration as being an "exciting event". However, Hurricane Katrina has put an end to the annual celebration of sin.
[...]
"Although the loss of lives is deeply saddening, this act of God destroyed a wicked city," stated Repent America director Michael Marcavage. "From 'Girls Gone Wild' to 'Southern Decadence,' New Orleans was a city that had its doors wide open to the public celebration of sin. From the devastation may a city full of righteousness emerge," he continued.

New Orleans is also known for its Mardi Gras parties where thousands of drunken men revel in the streets to exchange plastic jewelry for drunken women to expose their breasts. This annual event sparked the creation of the "Girls Gone Wild" video series.

"We must help and pray for those ravaged by this disaster, but let us not forget that the citizens of New Orleans tolerated and welcomed the wickedness in their city for so long," Marcavage said. "May this act of God cause us all to think about what we tolerate in our city limits, and bring us trembling before the throne of Almighty God," Marcavage concluded.

"[God] sendeth rain on the just and on the unjust." (Matthew 5:45)

As they say, I report -- you decide.
If enough people are reading to put this post toward the top of blogsnow, I'm not just squeeking in the darkness.
And, uh, I just checked to grab the url for this post and it's moved up a notch to #3. (or second after Instapundit).

SPR -- Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Here are details I didn't know but am glad to find out...

* Average price paid for oil in the Reserve - $27.25 per barrel
* Maximum drawdown capability - 4.4 million barrels per day
* Time for oil to enter U.S. market - 13 days from Presidential decision
* Investment to date - More than $21 billion ($4 billion for facilities; $17 billion for crude oil)
* When did it first open? - On July 21, 1977, the first oil - approximately 412,000 barrels of Saudi Arabian light crude - was delivered to the SPR. Fill of the Nation's emergency oil reserve had begun.
And...
Stockpiling oil in artificially-created caverns deep within the rock-hard salt costs historically about $3.50 per barrel in capital costs. Storing oil in aboveground tanks, by comparison, can cost $15 to $18 per barrel - or at least five times the expense. Also, because the salt caverns are 2000-4000 feet below the surface, geologic pressures will seal any crack that develops in the salt formation, assuring that no crude oil leaks from the cavern.
Thanks to WILLisms blog for this info and links to the Department of Energy Office of Fossil Fuels website.
.
[That's yet another place I gotta track. The Willism blog, I mean. Keeping up with government bureaucracy is out of the question.
Sigh. Keeping up with the blogosphere is sure a lot of work.]
.
[And hey, I know I'm long-winded, but I put some thought into the Aftermath post. If you have time, check it out.]

Katrina: the aftermath...a kind of running diary

Wednesday morning...

Blogging is an exercise in futility for me this morning as the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina captures all the attention. Every link seems to reveal yet another terrible piece of news or comment about conditions following this event. Live TV feeds from the area show professional reporters at the edge of their capabilities as they try to make sense of what is happening. Thousands of people who sought refuge in the Superdome (I have heard numbers ranging from six to thirty thousand) are being kept there by national guardsmen, presumably because leaving would be more unsafe for them than remaining in that place. The roof is open in places, restroom facilities are beyond using, there is no air conditioning and people have died already.

I am listening to a live lead from Channel 6 in Jackson, Mississippi [see my Monday post.]which is reporting events as they come to their newsroom. There are on-screen warnings about not drinking the water because it is a poisonous mixture of sewage and petroleum. The mayor of New Orleans is trying to be optimistic as arial views of the city show flooded neighborhoods as far as the eye can see. The cameras don't have to zoom in to show details as they typically do to exaggerate the impact of a story. The mayor is urging people to evacuate as "the bowl" is still filling with water as the result of broken levees. New Orleans is filling up and barring unforeseen events is expected to fill up in twelve to sixteen hours. Generators are running out of gas, city hall is being closed down, and the "fifteen thousand or so" people in the Superdome are also at risk of being flooded.

Looting is an open reality, civil order seems to be breaking down and officials are hard pressed to maintain control.

My plans to blog about other topics will have to wait until a quieter time. Today I am better occupied praying and trying to make sense of what I am hearing and seeing. A helicopter camera is showing a video marked "live" of the Superdome and surrounding area. Water is all around, the Superdome shows a lot of exterior damage, and the buildings around seems to have broken windows and scar tissue as well.

Blogging will have to wait.




******************
******************

Wednesday evening...

Only a handful of hits today. No one is interested in a little blog who there is so much breaking news.

I saw a report posted by Jim Gilbert a couple of hours ago. His church in Gainesville, Florida sent a team with supplies and a couple of generators to help. His post is titled Biloxi and Gulfport Are Gone.




Pastor George called while I was writing this. "We gave all our food and water to the Gulfport police for their seven hundred officers and their families," he relates. "We were surprised when they told us we were the first outside volunteers to reach them. Some of the women officers were in tears." In addition to the food and water, the team also gave the Gulfport police department several boxes of tarps and both of the church's gasoline generators.

In Atlanta today there was panic buying of gas as rumors of supplies running out and stations shutting down for the evening or the weekend spread like wildfire. Lines of cars lined up all over the metro area to buy gas at prices up to and over five dollars a gallon in places. Some operators, seeing that they were running low, jacked up their prices thinking that by doing so they might slow down sales thereby conserving their diminishing inventory. The effect on the public was exactly the opposite. Fearing that gas would not be available tonight or tomorrow people lined up to get anything they could at any price that was asked. I am personally aware of three people who left their job to buy gas and retain to work. Driving to work this morning about nine o'clock I had the same impulse just listening to the radio and stopped to top off my tank. I only got about five gallons but at $2.70 it cost more than the $2.50 I spent Monday night to get a tank at that time. An extra buck for five gallons in two days. Tonight the same station was at $2.80, and that is considered a good price in this environment.

There are rumors that the insurance industry may run out of funds. We have a good friend who evaluates damages for big claims, whose job is to be an on-site representative seeing that claims are legit, that covered repairs and construction are appropriately priced and performed. This event is even bigger than the destruction of the World Trade Center so I expect he has unparalleled job security.

No, I don't worry about the insurance industry running out of money. Insurance companies have the deepest pockets in the economy, maybe even deeper than banks. There are enough investment assets in their portfolios that liquid assets are pocket change by comparison. They'll find the funds, even if the chain-letter infrastructure of incestuous re-insurance is stretched to the breaking point. Over the next several years look for rates to increase in a manner that will not only repay any borrowed funds handsomely well, but will flow smoothly to the profit lines of all the major insurance companies as well. It's no accident that insurance stocks start climbing just when you might expect the opposite, in the aftermath of a catastrophe.

My own opinion is that ordinary people should cease subsidizing individuals and companies that persist in taking risks such as living and doing business in places known to be at risk for catastrophes, such as flood plains, dangerous coastlines and earthquake faults. What happened on the Gulf is not a surprise and has been talked about openly and annually ever since I can remember. The real tragedy is that what we see is not what could have been the worst. Had the eye of that storm landed a few degrees to the West, say about New Iberia instead of Slidell, the resulting tide would have dumped itself right into the New Orleans "bowl." We would not be looking at the roofs of houses and sending a cavalcade of busses to ship Superdome City to Houston's Astrodome for Thanksgiving. Instead we would be filling up body bags as rapidly as possible to avert a loss of life and property of biblical proportions...just like the predictions have advertised. No, this was still not the Big One.
[Next morning...I came across another sobering post from Wind of Change that does not agree. He says what we are seeing IS the worst case scenario. Powerful piece of reading. Go read that, too.]

We will see now how rapidly and diligently another large population will work to return itself to harms way, waiting for the next one. We will see how the memories of today's events will be filtered to make it not only sensible, but noble, to rebuild what was lost. Like human populations all over the world, from volcano fields to flood plains, the human population still behaves as irrationally as any other self-destructive assembley of God's creatures. We in America, of course, look down our noses at primitive people who pitch tents in river beds, or snuggle up to dangerous places in improvised shacks. But we turn a blind eye and a hard heart to our own people who do precisely the same thing. We allow them to deliver our services and fill our low-cost labor needs, but when it comes to providing a safety net for their care and security, some life-saving means by which they might escape dying and losing the little they own, we are no more advanced than the most negligent societies in history. Today I heard someone remark how all the people in the scenes of the aftermath were black. Hmm...imagine that. Wonder what that's all about?

Tonight I go to bed cynical. Maybe I can sleep it off.

***************
***************

Later...(Thursday morning)

I'm not the only one who noticed. From Slate...
Race remains largely untouchable for TV because broadcasters sense that they can't make an error without destroying careers. That's a true pity. If the subject were a little less taboo, one of last night's anchors could have asked a reporter, "Can you explain to our viewers, who by now have surely noticed, why 99 percent of the New Orleans evacuees we're seeing are African-American? I suppose our viewers have noticed, too, that the provocative looting footage we're airing and re-airing seems to depict mostly African-Americans."
Thud.
What was that? Somebody dropped something.

Oops! Here's another one...


The Elephant in the Room . . .
. . . that all the news anchors delicately tiptoe around -- that the camera announces so loudly into their silence -- is that almost all the looters shown in news footage loading Wal-Mart shopping carts with videogames and Nike shoes are black. And they look giddy and celebratory, like people who've won a shopping spree on a game show, as they indulge in this macabre parody of American consumerism. (One helicopter-borne observer marveled that this was a case of "you can't take it with you," since when the city is evacuated most of the loot will perforce remain behind. It almost looks as if the fantasy being fulfilled was shopping, not owning.)
Nothing to add except RTWT.
I guess I'm not altogether blind, dumb and old-fashioned in my sixties-form view of society.