Thursday, September 27, 2007

Marc Lynch at CATO -- Sunnis and the Surge

Matthew Hogan at Aquol...

...the Sunni leaders are stating to their very anti-US constituency that cooperation with the USA is merely tactical and the result of insurgent victories which forced the US to assist them in certain common aims of fighting al-Qaeda and fighting some Shiite militias. They view the government and al-Sadr as "Iranian" and they eventually want the entire US occupation out. In addition, the conditions are such that further sectarian fragmentation is underway and no matter how long the US stays, it appears the conditions will remain ripe for sectarian war.

He said it better than I. Little for me to add.

Here is the video.

"The idea of bottom-up reconcilliation is fatally just makes no sense, either empirically or theoretically. Even if you have Sunnis participating in the Iraqi police forces they do so in unintegrated units with the clear knowledge that the leadership of these institutions of the state are dominated by Shi'ia sectarian forces. This isn't a glass ceiling, it's a stainless steel ceiling and everybody knows it. As long as the institutions of the state look as they do, there is no possibility for bottom-up reconcilliation."

I cannot fathom how these realities are escaping notice in Washington. As I have said before, I'm just an old guy blogging and I know these facts and can validate them independently. I'm not reading classified documents but I see no indication that anyone in leadership is doing so either. Sectarian conflicts in Iraq are as clear, intractible and historically embedded as the rivers and desserts. This is not a secret.

Neither is the displacement and casualty level of a significant number of civilian non-combatants.

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