Follow-up, August 26
Michael J. Totten's pristine, first-person, on the scene narrative is a must-read for anyone concerned with this issue. This free-lance reporter, in my opinion, has more credibility than all the officials on any "side."
Be prepared to follow a very complex backstory and come away with as many questions as you started, although they may be different questions than when you began reading.
I must confess my own loss of interest when I realized the roots of this conflict are far more tangled and too deeply embedded in both ancient and modern history for any outsider to truly appreciate. We in America have no more understanding of ancient Asian conflicts than newcomers to America have of our own Civil War, or the nuances of American Colonial history. In fact, our own history is, by comparison, a mere footnote (less than three or four centuries) compared with the thousand and more years predating Asian conflicts.
Proceed with care, then, as you wade into some very deep waters. And do not overlook this man's report.
The Truth About Russia in Georgia
A thoughtful commenter from Georgia responded to my post about the Russian incursion a few days ago. The handful of regular readers to my little blog will not likely notice what has developed into a worthwhile exchange of ideas and opinions in that comment thread, so I am publishing them here for easy access.
The post is coming up in Google searches so more people are looking at it than normal. One of my stat counters that tracks where hits originate lists ten visitors to that post, with myself and one other being the only ones from the US. The others are from Romania (2), Canada, Czech Republic, Georgia (3), Spain and Moscow, Soviet Federation.
This is a small sample but I think it is noteworthy. Canaries are also small but miners once paid close attention to the health of caged canaries when they were deep underground. Need I say more?
It's not necessary to reprint the other post content. Here is a link to that rather lengthy post and the map to which the writer refers in his first remark.
I'm honored and pleased that someone with a good command of English who obviously lives in Georgia has taken the time and interest to share these important and insightful comments. I expect more may follow, so anyone who interested is invited to join in. What we have access to here is the rare human element tha complicates but often helps to resolve nearly all conflicts.
◄►ooooo◄►
I have decided to leave this matter alone for the moment. I want to remain neutral until I learn more. Others are free to engage in arguments in the comments as long as they remain civil, but I'm dropping out. My discovery of JOTMAN's blog seems to have been the best outcome for me from these events.
Here are additional links regarding the Russian incursion for readers who want to know more.
Pictures from Georgia v. Russia DO NOT OPEN IF YOU'VE NEVER SEEN WAR http://tinyurl.com/5bkmhb (NSFW)
And from a commenter at that site...
Akira said,
Комментарий • Август 18, 2008 @ 10:26 пп
Anyone with a blog, please use this information:
http://brianakira.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/georgia-anti-russian-propaganda-01.jpg
http://brianakira.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/georgia-anti-russian-propaganda-02.jpg
http://brianakira.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/georgia-anti-russian-propaganda-03.jpg
http://brianakira.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/georgia-anti-russian-propaganda-04.jpg
At least email the photos to your friends.
Another commenter left this link...
Stalin statue in Gori
Well heheh, not so fast:
1) You have a map there that shows that majority of population in disputed regions of Georgia are not Georgian, true. BUT, what about a pre war map??? 85% of Abkhaz population and over 90% of South Ossetian population were Georgians, before brutal ethnic cleansing by Russian military in 1993-94. (As for current map, even in todays shape it is not accurate. All Georgians are cleansed from Abkhazia and South Ossetia and majority of population consists today of Russian military and not of civilians, as crazy as it may sound it is true)
2) South Ossetia:
There NEVER was south or even north ossetia. In fact there was only one Ossetia on the territory of North Ossetia and it was called "Republic Alaniya"(were all those Ossetians lived) before 1989 (or so) After Soveit Union collapsed Russians renamed "Republic Alaniya" to "North Ossetia" as for "South" ... LOL just look at geographical map, there is a HUUUGE wall of mountains between so called "North and South" Ossetias. A Huge tunnel which lies under a mountain called a "Roki" tunnel connects Georgia and Russia (North and South Ossetia)
So in 1994 Russian tanks started to flow into a Georgian territory called "Samachablo" and ethnically cleansed a small city of Tskinvaly and proclaimed it a capital of "South Ossetia"
In 2004 elected Georgian president Saakashvili agreed to call that region "South Ossetia" and proposed a full autonomy within internationally recognised borders of Georgia. Russians rejected and tried to simply use that territory to stall Georgia's progress in development and integration into Europe and NATO.
3) Abkhazia:
It was just a amazing resort were absolute majority of population were Georgians and now there are no Georgians after brutal actions of Russian military and Chechen mercenaries, Shamil Basaev being a war hero of that was hailed by Russian media for those atrocities he has committed against Georgian civilian population. Basaev turned against Russians in a very brutal war in Chechnya just a little later.
4) Basically that ethnic map you got there, is still very inaccurate.
5) And well I just could not take this BS :
"...new first lady of Georgia, explained that her husband aspires to follow in the long tradition of strong Georgian leaders "like Stalin and Beria"."
- I understand that for as anyone who has not hared anything about my country words like Stalin, Beria and Georgia might be self explanatory, BUT you must at least know something about history of those people and the reality on the ground.
Stalin was NEVER a hero of Georgia in fact he was a simple bank robber who got arrested and sent to Siberia(to end his life) This happened in his early life and since than he has revenged himself by slaughtering hundreds of thousands of Georgians. The fact that highest amount of deaths(in percent) during second world war were Georgians was also a "gift" for Stalin. Georgians always hated him and he could never forgive that, so he sent EVERY Georgian man to war.
As for Beria he was and is widely hated because he was the man who was coordinating those killings by Stalin. Georgians are not Russians and they value their lives much higher than Russians value lives of their citizens.(comes simply from the history)
So this words are impossible, the first lady who is from the Netherlands btw, would NEVER have said them, this is a simple lie from a news source.
In Geri there is a very small grope (25-35 people or so, literally) of 90+ year old people who still like Stalin, most of them are ethnic Armenians, Georgians and Russians
(they are citizens of Georgia) but this view is not shared by the rest of the country. I mean by more than 99 % of population.
6) I'm sorry since I did not read and analyze everything you wrote there, too much for me but in majority while it may seem true to you, your facts are false, because you don't know the details THAT DO MATTER!
7) As for Georgian "Invasion" to Tskinvali well...
what else would they say? We invaded Georgia just because?
They did this in response to the Kosovo thing and they also feel rich and successful right now...
Who stared what:
1) Russians a finished rehabilitation of the military rail road in Abkhgazia just a week ago before invasion. The Russian military rail road personnel was working over few months, in Moscow they called it a "Humanitarian" mission, but today Russian tanks move by that military.
http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=18851
2) Russians had a large scale military exercises Just Outside or "Roki" tunnel from the Russian side of the border. "Caucasus 2008" every soldier was given a paper with war propaganda, wich ended up on the Internet. It was finished just a week or so before war.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caucasus_Frontier_2008
3) The usually anti Georgian Russian media reached a new level of propaganda just few weeks before war.
4) A serious fact that Russians started to evacuate the civilian population from Tskinvali three weeks before war. This was very official in Russian media, but not in the western.
5)Read "The Human Rights Watch" report about this war.(They have been to Tskinvali) Russians claimed 2000 dead civilians, read the report and conclusion.
6) There's also a small fact that two weeks before the Russian invasion, cyber war has damaged many of Georgian news web sites. This is also indication that Russians were preparing it for a long time, but I guess if you want to believe Putin and the rest ofg the KGB like Ivanov or Lavrov go ahead...
I hope it's more or less clear, sure everyone can have their view, but then there are also things that are called facts.
Thanks for your comments. It looks like my post hit a nerve. Please excuse my American ignorance, but give me a little credit for reading more than just what's been fed to the press.
Before I posted material from JOTMAN's Blog I first checked his list of impressive credits. And that quote from Sandra Roelofs is from the Guardian of London. It's left wing, but not without credibility.
It is clear from the enthusiastic demonstrations we see on TV that the Georgians are very supportive of their president and what he has said and done. It is not clear, however, that the populations of South Osetia or Gori are equally enthusiastic.
"Thanks for your comments. It looks like my post hit a nerve."
- Well one day I wake up and there are Russian tanks, so how do you think I feel. Heheh...
"Please excuse my American ignorance, but give me a little credit for reading more than just what's been fed to the press."
- I understand your opinion, you don't like that most of media is criticizing Russia and I understand why this may sound suspicious, but you should also understand that Russia is NOT a democracy. There is NO freedom of press in Russia. So you have to judge it for what it is.
http://www.rsf.org/article.php3?id_article=24025
"Before I posted material from JOTMAN's Blog I first checked his list of impressive credits. And that quote from Sandra Roelofs is from the Guardian of London. It's left wing, but not without credibility."
- I understand, but this thing here sounds like complete BS, no seriously. If she anyone has ever said anything like it I think the opposition would start seriously biting.
"It is clear from the enthusiastic demonstrations we see on TV that the Georgians are very supportive of their president and what he has said and done."
- Well there are many different views in Georgia, this is a democratic state no matter how it may seem from outside.Sure it is not a Switzerland, but it simply lacks any conditions to have a shiny democracy, but this country, it's government and people are trying hard.
There is an serious opposition, there is powerful opposition media and sure they have their impact. But everyone understands that this is a moment for unity or the country might not take such pressure from Russia.
"It is not clear, however, that the populations of South Osetia or Gori are equally enthusiastic."
- It depends which population do you mean? In Gori there are many Georgians , Ossetians and many other ethnic groups that have full access to media and different views. Most of them support Georgian government.
In South Ossetia about 50% of territory(before few days ago) was still populated by Georgians, Ossetians and they supported Georgian government. The other 50% or so is under informational blockade, they have only Russian media and their only job is to serve in the Russian financed anti Georgian militia's. So they probably Support Putin.(They even have a banner in Tskinvali "Putin is our president") But the real problem is a HUGE change in a demography because of the horrible violence in the past years.
P.S.
As for Ossetian people, they live in EVERY part of Georgia even today their population is 4 times more in the rest of the country then in those disputed territories.
There never was a ethnic problem here, the problem is in Kremlin, in Prime minister Putin's head.
Many officials in Georgia have Ossetian origin, in government, military and even in Beijing at the Olympics.
Again, thanks for returning with comments. Your description of Georgia and Osetia as places where a mixture of ethnic groups live all mixed together with "never an ethnic problem" reminds me of similar descriptions from places all over the world. I'm thinking of such diverse places as the former Yugoslavia, Turkey, Rwanda, the old British Raj which divided into India and Pakistan, and the list can go on forever.
Your link to RSF is telling. As of last year's report Georgia ranks well ahead of Russia on their list which comes as no surprise. And cyber-attacks targeting Georgian websites only adds to a growing pile of evidence incriminating Russia.
My interest in this conflict is more a spinoff of our presidential election than any personal involvement. I'm just an ordinary American trying to make sense of a lot of confusing information, trying to decide which of two candidates for president will better serve the cause of effective conflict resolution in foreign policy.
It's clear to me that military actions, though sometimes unavoidable, are at the very bottom of the list of ways to resolve conflict. My suspicions of John McCain were raised when I learned that one of his top foreign policy advisers formerly served as a Georgia lobbyist. It's no accident that his instant response to the Russian incursion was, like most conservative and isolationist Americans, sword-rattling.
Interestingly enough, the Obama response was more circumspect and, I might add, more in line with the equally cool response from Washington.
Most Americans are ignorant about these matters and show no interest in learning. Popular entertainment, sadly, gets more attention from the US electorate than foreign policy. Nevertheless a few of us are trying to do the responsible thing by putting a man into office who appears to be more open to creative conflict resolution than others in recent years.
The larger picture to me indicates simmering tensions and political ferment in many parts of the world formerly held in place by heavy-handed, autocratic regimes. When totalitarian regimes come apart, whether in Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa or, yes, Iraq... the aftermath is not always pretty. The challenge of what we like to call "freedom" is not freedom at all. It's really how best do we cope with the tensions of a painful past and learn to live together looking forward rather than backward?
Of course that's easy for me to say from a safe distance. It's like telling the alcoholic or cancer victim to "get over it and get on with the rest of your life." And I don't want to sound that insensitive. But somewhere between that place and today's suffering there has to be a middle ground.
I read your glowing description of Baku, awash with oil wealth and looking for all the world like the next Dubai or whatever. In a way I can almost hear the same expectations for Tblisi in the background. And that's good. That's evidence of positive thinking and hope for the future. Even in the darkest days of Saddam's ugly tyranny the people of Kurdistan were making the best of a bad situation (from what I have read) and building a social and economic model that would be comfortable for most world travelers. It helped, of course, that the Peshmergas are among the world's best warriors, but their role in the picture is probably less important than the role of -- we have to say it -- OIL.
Give me your opinion, then, of two questions:
1) How much of the Georgia/Russia/Osetia/Abkhazia confilct derives from the control of oil (either extraction or control after extraction)?
2) Have you any opinion about which of our two presidential candidates will better serve both the future of Georgia and US realtions in that part of the world?
“Again, thanks for returning with comments. Your description of Georgia and Osetia as places where a mixture of ethnic groups live all mixed together with "never an ethnic problem" reminds me of similar descriptions from places all over the world. I'm thinking of such diverse places as the former Yugoslavia, Turkey, Rwanda, the old British Raj which divided into India and Pakistan, and the list can go on forever. “
- I really don’t like how you are putting this. Each problem and each conflict is very unique, I don’t like how you are putting all this in a row. The problem is really not about Ossetian vs Georgian people, the problem is that Kremlin wants military bases in a very strategic locations, just across the HUGE Caucasian mountains that separate Russia and Georgia. The Ossetian people and protecting Russia’s citizens is the same pretext that was used by Germany during invasion of Poland, they also wanted to “protect” the minority. Russian citizens live everywhere in Georgia and we are not eating them alive. (On the contrary in Russia last week only 17 people with Caucasian origin were killed, few Georgians, few Armenian and even few Ossetian… we are not so distinct from each other.)
At least 200(yes 200) ethnic groups live in Georgia, it’s a HUGE number for such a tiny country that is of the size of South Carolina and has population of just 3,5 million.
“Your link to RSF is telling. As of last year's report Georgia ranks well ahead of Russia on their list which comes as no surprise. And cyber-attacks targeting Georgian websites only adds to a growing pile of evidence incriminating Russia.“
- Well not only that, Georgia is trying hard to become a real “beacon” of democracy in the region and if you look for other world indexes like “Ease of doing business” by world bank or “economic freedom” or such you will see how hard this country is trying to be better. Sure it has still ways to go, but it never had any conditions and having all this in the neighbourhood that we live in is a real achievement. I am not a Russia hater, in fact I like many things about Russia, like their writers, composers and their beautiful girls, but Russia is heading to dangerous place and the world has to do something or tomorrow it has to face MUCH worse problems that will also be “closer” and more personal for the west.
“My interest in this conflict is more a spinoff of our presidential election than any personal involvement. I'm just an ordinary American trying to make sense of a lot of confusing information, trying to decide which of two candidates for president will better serve the cause of effective conflict resolution in foreign policy.”
- Well it is a “spinoff” for me too. I don’t dream about geopolitics myself. I am a physicist and I have completely different interests in life, it’s just hard to say “OK this does not bother me” when you see so many Russian tanks in your country.
“Most Americans are ignorant about these matters and show no interest in learning. Popular entertainment, sadly, gets more attention from the US electorate than foreign policy. Nevertheless a few of us are trying to do the responsible thing by putting a man into office who appears to be more open to creative conflict resolution than others in recent years.”
- Well this is the case for whole world actually, when there are no Russian tanks
(Not this much) Georgians are sitting in Café’s and Restaurants and eating delicious Georgian food with their guests and friends or drinking red wine. They are in no way thinking how to resolve the conflict in Darfur for example either… People want to have happy thoughts nobody wants to think about others problems 24/7.(at least not many people do) Like elsewhere people in Tbilisi would better buy third ipod and a Jeep for 80 000USD that they don’t really need than spend this money to help the poor, so it’s a global thing and maybe that is even normal…
“The larger picture to me indicates simmering tensions and political ferment in many parts of the world formerly held in place by heavy-handed, autocratic regimes. When totalitarian regimes come apart, whether in Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa or, yes, Iraq... the aftermath is not always pretty. The challenge of what we like to call "freedom" is not freedom at all. It's really how best do we cope with the tensions of a painful past and learn to live together looking forward rather than backward?”
- True, but this does not matter that much. World today is much more dangerous than before war in Iraq. While Saddam had to be removed and I’m sure that Iraq will succeed in the end. I have met one young Iraqi in a bar in Geneva few months ago and was so surprised to see how optimistic he was. He told me “Yeah just give us 10 years and we will be one of the richest nations on this planet, we just have to get through this.” But that war had very serious side effects like making Russia Insanely rich, which would have been not a serious problem if there was a normal democratic government. But with Vladimir Putin and Ivanov and such
KGB style rulers… it’s going to turn into MUCH bigger problem than Georgia quite soon.
As for the west, I do not up rule the fact that for some blaming Georgia may sound like a good idea. While I’m often very critical of my people I know most of good and bad they are capable of.
As for the west, it really is a bit unfortunate situation. Their ally (And Georgia was the third country
After US and UK by the military presence in Iraq about 2000 soldiers that were recalled after Russians invaded)
has been marched on by Russia, so saying “Hey but Russian’s say that Georgia did wrong” actually may be even more politically correct right now. Sure west really can’t do anything to stop Russia doing what it wants to it’s
neighbours so idea that those neighbours where also quite guilty is a good way of masking the west’s inability of protecting small democratic Georgia from it’s big autocratic neighbour and inability of West’s punishment of today’s Oil rich Russia.
“I read your glowing description of Baku, awash with oil wealth and looking for all the world like the next Dubai or whatever. In a way I can almost hear the same expectations for Tblisi in the background. And that's good. That's evidence of positive thinking and hope for the future. Even in the darkest days of Saddam's ugly tyranny the people of Kurdistan were making the best of a bad situation (from what I have read) and building a social and economic model that would be comfortable for most world travelers. It helped, of course, that the Peshmergas are among the world's best warriors, but their role in the picture is probably less important than the role of -- we have to say it -- OIL.”
- Well in Baku there is a soft autocratic regime, quite comparable to what is in Saudi Arabia, only much softer I guess. People there are really nice, but by god it is so corrupt and still very unreformed. Like in Russia Oil is a blessing and a curse.
As for Tbilisi, it’s economy and construction was booming unlike I ever expected, until few days ago. The many constructions seem to go on, but I don’t know how long this can go on with the Russian tanks rolling just in 30km from it. Even if they pull out. They will never go far. Their huge military bases are few months complete in Ablhazia and South Ossetia so now they seem to think that they have legal reasons to have those tanks and stuff on our soil. To protect their “peacekeepers” or whatever…
1) How much of the Georgia/Russia/Osetia/Abkhazia conflict derives from the control of oil (either extraction or control after extraction)?
- Oil, well that’s the point that there are MANY MANY small pile of reasons for this war. As there are many small reasons why it happened right now. Oil is the only one of this details. Georgia does not have lots of oil, but Azerbaijan does as do other central Asian counties like Turkmenistan or Kazakhstan or Iran. Georgia could serve and is serving as only alternative transit route bypassing Russia and reaching EU. So by controlling Georgia Russia gets a complete monopoly over Oil going to EU from this continent.
- But Oil is only one part of the problem. For many years Russia has launched an unprecedented scale propaganda against Georgians and especially against president Saakashvili. The main reasons are that he got his education in US, not somewhere else but US. Also his will to get Georgia to NATO is also a reason for their hatred. I’m absolutely sure that even 8 year old child in Russia that has never seen any real Georgian or does not even know were that country is full of hatred towards our people. Russian media does a amazing job here, that’s why it is scored so low in that index. And trust me there is not a very big difference between how much free independent opinions can Russian citizens get or how much say people of north Korea. Sure Russia is still not NK, but it is not as far from it as you may think. I watch Russian media myself and can tell you that they are messing with their heads. Idea’s like “Russia is surrounded by enemy” is blown on their screens and in their papers every day.
- Russia is such a huge country that it can create it’s alternative world vision for it’s population. As you know all the media is controlled by Kremlin so they can totally manipulate what the population thinks and they are doing this 24 hours a day. Even my Russian friends that live today in Russia have emailed me and wrote how they hate all of us. I’m so shocked… I thought that they were friends. So their propaganda is “Russia is strong like never before, thanks to the leadership of Putin”, “Russia is going to revenge for it’s humiliation in the end of the cold war” and “The world has to understand that we are a superpower and there should be a new world order”.Today Russian people are in euphoria, they are being told that they have saved the day and they want to turn it to a demonstration of return of their might. Also the president of Georgia has been portrayed in Russia like a complete madman that has been appointed by Americans and that is being paid by Americans. Well to be honest I have lot’s of young Georgian friends in the best Universities across US, EU and I can’t say that any of them are working for CIA or whatever…
- Where else should they learn in Russia where skinheads might kill them, just because they are not Russians? If Russian government acted differently they could have achieved everything through soft power and “friendship” but I guess sophisticated politics are too difficult for the soviet style leadership of current oil giant.
2) Have you any opinion about which of our two presidential candidates will better serve both the future of Georgia and US relations in that part of the world?
- Well it’s a tough question, but in any case I think the next leader will be much better than the current one. Georgia and the US will probably stay in good relationship no matter who gets elected.
Mccane:
I would still prefer him, because I think in the time when the autocratic leaders are so reckless and aggressive there is only one language that they can understand. The world needs a new Reagan. US stance should be very principled or the future will hold far grater threats. What’s important however is striking a balance and not going back to the full scale cold war. But still the party’s don’t fight if the both sides do not want that, I think the pragmatism is not always the key, sometimes the principles should be protected or the next day autocratic regimes will have more and bigger demands.
Obama:
I like Obama for many reasons, I like how he does his speeches and he seems very pragmatic and very open, but still this are not the only qualities the US president might need. I think that you can’t always strike the balance and sometimes you have to chose between left or right path.
I don’t like when politicians are just too careful, yes I really mean it. Sometimes you have to make a choice and defend you opinion and not emulate Coffi Anan Or Ban Ki Mun of the useless organisation that UN is. You can’t make everyone like you.
Probably you now like ex president Clinton… well as successful as he was inside US politicly/economicly as failed he was as a world leader. Russia was on it’s knees.(1992-1997) US could have done ANYTHING to it. Instead the world was making jokes about Boris Yeltsin and laughing at “poor and drunk” Russia. Well that was the time to help Russia’s democracy. That was a moment for action and I’m not sure if there will be another chance for hundreds of years now. Clinton shockingly did absolutely NOTHING to turn Russia to an ally and there was a real chance for that. That was a time for a war in Iraq and pulling out Russia from the economic hole. Instead what happened was that Russia was pulled out by Oil prices but that was already very different Russia, under KGB and under Putin. Make no mistake, under Yeltsin Russia was NOT a democracy, but it also was not a real authoritarian country. It could have evolved into a democracy if only US did something.
Future of your country: (Well my opinion lol)
I think that US will manage to get out from the current economic and political hole under a new president. The problem will be to play a role of a one single leader of the world. China is coming actually slower and is acting more careful than Russia in the global politics.
Russia:
Well Russia will continue it’s triumphant march towards “Return of power”, however I have seen huge flaws in their military. They won because they invaded y country with an absolute overwhelming force, but their soldiers have a low morale and are equipped really poorly compared even to Georgian army. I have seen a video done by Russian soldiers that captured a military base.
They say “Look, look at them! They have everything and we live like bums. Clean nice beds, nice uniforms…” They were saying all this as they were looting everything from that city’s like Gori, Senaki, port city of Poti and such…(I’m sure that video should be online somewhere) So I think that their army is still way behind because of the horrible corruption and still quite soviet approach to everything governmental. Also there is no doubt that Russia is really trying hard to rival US and European media power, it is limited even today but they have many people on the pay check even in the most respected media outlets of the west. Not to mention a strange array of new web “analytical centres” that post very strange propaganda style articles… (Like “Crossfire war” web site) Don’t remember the link…
This is how they do this and the rest of the world tries to balance the things, problem is that they are balancing a mixture of truths and direct lies… in the end they got something that is hard to understand… And often it is hard to understand that Russia is bad, if you need Russia for many other reasons like Iran, North Korea, Nuclear safety or yes… oil.
In the future it seems that PM Putin will once be back as a president again. I guess during the next presidential elections in Russia.
Georgia’s Future:
Georgia is a democracy today, a very venerable democracy and fragile. While the opposition and the government are not fighting right now. I’m sure that the lack of democratic experience will play it’s role as soon as Russian tanks leave the country. I think that there might be a change of the government and if that happens, this will mark the end of the European future for the region. Also probably there will be far less relying on the US and EU as partners as for Russia, she has chosen it’s role for this country once and for all.
I mean that unlike Putin and other Russian officials Saakashvili will have to face some tough questions from the opposition in his country and that may be a catalyst for some unrests. Besides Russian minister of foreign affairs has stated in a phone conversation that “Saakashvili must go” and “change of government” was high on the agenda in UN security consul sparring between Russia’s Vitalii Churkin and US representative. So I think Russian’s will do their best and inexperienced Georgian political system might be used to topple the current government.
This country will have to drift, the west will not accept it because Russia will not let it be part of EU or NATO. Russia will simply do it’s best to show others what might happen to them if they try to be like Europe.
As you can see I am not very optimistic here.
Georgians are very religious people, if you ever visit Tbilisi, you will see that every corner, every mountain has a church or a monastery. Georgia is one of the oldest Christian countries in the world, to be honest I believe that this is just the way of living between the crossroads were Georgia lies. People that are desperate need something to believe. I’m not a religious person myself, but from the history that I have seen with my own eyes, I understand why my people need god so much, they need something to rely on.
... phew, well I guess I better get back to other things.
Good luck.