The Hamas Victory: Another failure of intelligence
Dr. Hadar's Global Paradigms
...it's not a secret that some of the top PLO guys receive stipends from the CIA, not to mention the fact that some of the "research institutes" and polling companies are receiving funding from the U.S. and the E.U. Any Arab-American working for our intelligence services could settle in the West Bank and Gaza where the population is multilingual and where everyone talks. Did I mention that we are talking here about an area that is about the side of Montgomery Country, Maryland, where I live. So.. what was exactly is the problem? Why couldn't we figure out the electoral trends among the Palestinians? And what about the legendary Mossad? Sorry, guys, but if we couldn't get this right, why do we even need an "intelligence service?" Well, maybe it's my own low intelligence, like the other intelligence, that can't figure that out.
"It may well be that Hamas can change," Mr. Carter said, remembering his presidency, when the Palestine Liberation Organization under Yasir Arafat finally agreed to recognize the existence of Israel and to forswear terrorism. "It's a mistake to abandon optimism completely."He urged Israel and the world: "Don't drive the Palestinians away from rationality. Don't force them into assuming arms as the only way to achieve their legitimate goals. Give them some encouragement and the benefit of the doubt."
...The world, including Israel, can't just treat the PA as a black hole. Force works two ways, and the world will be forced, as a realistic matter, to deal with the people in charge.My top two candidates for being first to establish a reciprocal relationship are the EU and Egypt. And I wouldn't underestimate Egypt's power vis-a-vis Hamas: the latter will need that Rafah border, big time, if it wants to wean the Palestinian economy away from Israel. Eventually - most likely after the Israeli elections - the United States and Israel will also have to develop some kind of de facto system of communication, which may again involve Egypt as back channel.Keep in mind, also, that Hamas will face a squeeze from within as well as without, and it will ironically be the same kind of squeeze that Abbas faced - the presence of armed factions that don't recognize its authority. If it's serious about establishing law and order, it will need quite a bit of outside support - more, I'd guess, than Iran or Hizbullah would be able to provide.